Skip to content

Thoughts on the end of the Social Boom

March 25, 2012

First, It’s been a while since I’ve blogged here. I think I’ll bring this back for some discussions not just on IT, but the technology sector in general.

Tonight, I will point you toward Omar Gallaga’s discussion on SXSWi and how this feels like the end of the boom around Social Media. First, Omar is right: It seems more and more like this boom will end sooner than later. We’re seeing technologies gain attention (albeit less crazy than the late 1990s – the market has learned) that should have never made it past the angel phase.

Second is the bigger (and lucrative) question: what next. We know tablets, smartphones, and the other tools that took us to the “Web 2.0” era are here to stay. Facebook isn’t going anywhere. Twitter isn’t either. The next evolution of Internet technology must work within the context of these tools. So based on that, it can be inferred that: we will see an era where desktops will become less important, both in the home and the workplace as smaller devices (and specialized devices) take those tasks over. While the Social boom is ending, the Cloud and aaS eras are not. More and more data will be moved off PCs and into the data center (creating it’s own boom: not in physical data center space – but solutions to make existing data centers more efficient at current physical constraints). The TV may become the center of some homes again: not as a a box that gets 4 channels or even 400 channels, but a device that connects the home to a variety of services: be it streaming media, Facebook, or the bank over IP.

In the enterprise, the promise of tablets may finally be delivered upon: as a cost savings tool. In my analysis, capital expense of a tablet over a similarly equipped laptop is around half. While the traditional desktop will never go away, we will see two growth drivers in this area: businesses that issue significant numbers of severely underutilized desktops and laptops look to tablet or other solutions as a method to reduce costs and smaller businesses who self-identify services that are available online such as point of sale solutions (Square) as a mechanism to reduce initial and ongoing capital costs.

We are again at a crossroads. The boom in social media will reach an end soon. The capital and resources that are in that market must find a new home once the bust happens. Many old line businesses will identify ways to adapt to new paradigm, however in a significant number of arenas old line businesses will simply fail to adapt because of cultural issues: be it a fear of cannibalizing existing cash cow products, or a simple lack of will to put forth risk. canibal


From → On Technology

Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: